My Oscars Predictions
Sunday marks the 96th Academy Awards and for the sixth year in a row, we’ll be livetweeting the Oscars, which you can find on ABC at 7pm eastern. We’ll continue to use the hashtag #HATM for the night. My feelings are mixed on the Oscars—they’re tainted by politicking, bad judges, and wild swings of voter opinions.1 I mean, who really cares what people you’ve never met think about a movie?2 And so many times, the best picture fails to win Best Picture.3
But the Oscars do matter. They shape careers and the fortunes of production companies. They legitimize the way we think about artists’ legacies. Much like quarterbacks winning a Super Bowl, can an actor or actress be considered truly great until he or she has taken home the trophy?4 So with that said, allow me to give my picks for this year’s Oscar awards ceremony. And no, I haven’t seen all of these films, but not everyone on your committee read your dissertation, so I guess we are even.
Without further ado, my Oscars Awards:
BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Should win: Oppenheimer
Will win: Oppenheimer
This film is spectacular, and with the exception of The Social Network, I think it’s the best film of the 21st century.5 Nolan is the best filmmaker working right now (Villeneuve is pushing hard though). Easy pick to make.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Should win/Will win: Nolan. No question.
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Should win: Lily Gladstone
Will win: This where the Academy might muck it up. The Academy loves Emma Stone (for good reason) and has a nasty habit of awarding actors for performances based on career respect (Anthony Hopkins in The Father). I think Gladstone wins this, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bening or Stone walk away with the award.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Should win: Murphy
Will win: Another minefield. Giamatti is one of the finest actors of his generation. And god knows we love history teachers around here. But Murphy became Oppenheimer. I think wiser heads prevail here. Murphy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Should win/will win: This is Randolph’s award.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Should win: Ryan Gosling
Will win: Robert Downey, Jr. I’m not as sold on RDJ’s performance as some others. He’s terrific, but I think Gosling may have done the impossible with this role. Don’t be surprised if Ruffalo win here, though. Poor Things has some weird heat that I don’t understand.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
David Hemingson, The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro
Samy Burch, May December
Celine Song, Past Lives
Should win: The Holdovers
Will win: Anatomy of a Fall. This is nothing more than a hunch.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Should win/will win: Nolan, Oppenheimer. Anything else would be a massive upset. And a mistake.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Io Capitano, Italy
Perfect Days, Japan
Society of the Snow, Spain
The Teacher’s Lounge, Germany
The Zone of Interest, United Kingdom
Should win: Godzilla Minus One. I think Japan made a mistake not submitting this film for the Academy Award. More than any other film last year, I talk about this one. Phenomenal film that should have been nominated for the whole enchilada.
Will win: Society of the Snow. It sounds nice.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Should win/will win: The Boy and the Heron. But beware of Spider-Man.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
Should win/will win: 20 Days in Mariupol
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Should win/will win: This has to be Oppenheimer. Easiest pick of the show.
BEST EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Should win/will win: Oppenheimer continues to roll.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Should win: Oppenheimer
Will win: I think that Poor Things or Barbie may pull off the upset here. They’re just s different than everything else we saw last year.
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Should win: Oppenheimer
Will win: Poor Things. I think this is where voters may deviate and choose to award Poor Things a statue.
BEST SOUND
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Should win/will win: Oppenheimer
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Should win: The Creator
Will win: The Creator. But Godzilla Minus One may take it if audiences realizes that what they created with that budget is nothing short of a miracle. I’m rooting for Godzilla here.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Should win/Will win: Oppenheimer. I’m hoping it can fend off Poor Things.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“What Was I Made For?”, Billie Eilish and Finneas, Barbie
“I’m Just Ken,” Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, Barbie
“The Fire Inside,” Diane Warren, Flamin’ Hot
“It Never Went Away,” Jon Batiste, American Symphony
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Osage Tribal Singers, Killers of the Flower Moon
Should win/will win: “I’m Just Ken.” Has to be.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Should win/will win: Oppenheimer
There are a few other categories related to shorts, but I didn’t see any of those, so I’m gonna pause here. What do you think? Who are you rooting for this year?
Jason
Naturally I accepted a position as judge of documentaries for the American Historical Association. What could go wrong?
Actually, that qualifies as me now that I think about it, but whatever. Read on. I’m sure my thoughts are important.
No one likes Shakespeare in Love. Admit it.
Apologies to Dan Marino.
Dune Part 2 is making me rethink this position.
I feel so out of the pop culture loop these days, so I'm grateful you're dropping some knowledge here. But I have to disagree with footnote #3 -- and I don't care if I get hate for this, but I absolutely LOVED Shakespeare in Love. Perhaps it didn't deserve the Oscar, but Tom Stoppard's wit is my favorite among contemporary playwright's. "The Real Thing" is a masterpiece IMO, and "Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead" is brilliant.